Fed Prob Update

Inflation is here!

This next fed meeting should be interesting. I am leaning more towards 0 - 25Bp cut now...and the market is getting more conservative as you can see as well. Interesting thing to note..I was digging around on the Bloomberg terminal yesterday and at the current inflation levels that just came in is at the same levels that the fed started raising interest rates during the last cycle...

...the stagflation theory I was throwing around 6 months ago doesnt sound so bizarre anymore does it? Lets hope unemployment stays tame for the health of the economy....otherwise lets trade the fall!

Speaking of fall...here is the current consolidation in the S&P. Nice little funnel. 1350 is a good mental point to consolidate about. Which way do we break? I think down. Before we go any higher we need to retest that low in the start of january. Not sure if we will go all the way down to the bottom of the whick, but atleast to the 1280-1260 level. From there...is anybody's guess? My crystal ball sucks.

Trading UI Money

Well I get my funded UI trading account tomorrow...this should be fun. We'll see how it goes. I have approval to trade SSO, SDS, QID, and QLD (Ultra S&Ps and Ultra NASDAQ).

The Fed Funds trade is still cranking away...came within 9 ticks of my stop last night on the jobs numbers but rallied right back during the day to where I was yesterday. Im a little worried about the lack of volume...it wouldnt take much capital to push this market one direction and hit some stops.

Its working

Up 400 bucks on the trade on 5 contracts! Thats a return of 12.3% on the day...not bad. Ill take it! The goal is around 2k return on this baby which would make it a return of around 66%...Hope for bad economic news tomorrow morning!

March FOMC Trading Idea...

Last 30 day FF March Contract trade was 97.345, or an implied interest rate of 2.655%. We are at 3% now so that would be a cut of 34.5 BP. Cleveland Fed implied probabilities show an EV of 57.75 BP Cut. Im considering Buying up a few of these contracts...thus far the EV has proven to be highly accurate in determining the Fed Move...but do they dare cut 50 again!?

XC Skiing

I picked up some skis on Friday and went up to Moscow Mountain and it was a blast! Here are a few pics from the Mountain. I started over by the Headwaters side and went around the west side and up on the ridge road. I cant wait to go again.