Thursday, February 21, 2008

Fed Prob Update


Inflation is here!
This next fed meeting should be interesting. I am leaning more towards 0 - 25Bp cut now...and the market is getting more conservative as you can see as well. Interesting thing to note..I was digging around on the Bloomberg terminal yesterday and at the current inflation levels that just came in is at the same levels that the fed started raising interest rates during the last cycle...
...the stagflation theory I was throwing around 6 months ago doesnt sound so bizarre anymore does it? Lets hope unemployment stays tame for the health of the economy....otherwise lets trade the fall!
Speaking of fall...here is the current consolidation in the S&P. Nice little funnel. 1350 is a good mental point to consolidate about. Which way do we break? I think down. Before we go any higher we need to retest that low in the start of january. Not sure if we will go all the way down to the bottom of the whick, but atleast to the 1280-1260 level. From there...is anybody's guess? My crystal ball sucks.

1 comment:

C said...

Does your crystal ball tell you what 15/16 is? I really need to know.